Villa in Tumbak Bayuh forecasting report

petr villa

Bedroom : 1
Bathroom : 1
Floor Level : 2

Building Size : 110 m²
Design : Modern

Swimming Pool : Yes
Garden     : Yes

Qualitative Analysis Grade

Design Grade : A-

Design influences the desirability of the property and has impact on your ranking potential and ability to defend the ranking. Unique designs will create space & allow your property to create a distinct brand and signature from competitors. This factor has impact on advance bookings. More time to sell the property results in fewer last-minute discounts.

Positive Contributors :

  • Complete services
  • Modern Design
  • Has pool as adding point

Negative Contributors : No views

Analysis Method : Cluster Analysis - Expert Insight

Data Sources : Airbnb - 2nd party data

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A

Luxury, cozy design with pool and view. Experience that could attract guest to pay more.

B

Standard cozy property with complete services and view.

C

Outdated design, not complete service, no view

Location Grade : B-

The popularity of your location, relative to all other potential locations that your potential guest might consider.

Positive Contributors :

  • Near market, cafe, beaches

Negative Contributors :

  • Far from desirable experiences.

Analysis Method :  Heat Map Analysis

Data Sources : Airbnb - 2nd party data

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Product User Fit : A-

Travelers consist of different user segments, they’ll bid at different prices for different travel dates. A property with a high product-user fit will appeal to the greatest number of unique, highest-paying traveler segments across the year. This grade has the greatest influence on your ADR (average daily rate).

Positive Contributors :

  • Targeting most desirable market for 1BR.

Negative Contributors :

  • Not walking distance to the beach or any essential attractions.

Analysis Method :  Time Series - User Segmentation Analysis by Booking Behaviors

Data Sources : Data Vista - Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse - 1st party data

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Ranking Potential : B+

At Bukit Vista, we are experts in attaining ranking for a property across platforms. This metric is our confidence level that your property can achieve a sustainable ranking & thus sustained revenue. This metric has the most impact on your occupancy.

Positive Contributors :

  • High Product User Fit
  • High Design Grade

Negative Contributors :

  • Low Location Grade

Analysis Method :  Proprietary Method to Bukit Vista

Data Sources : Data Vista - Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse - 1st party data

Ranking Defensibility : B+

Once ranking has been achieved, this metric considers the effort to keep the ranking & thus the revenue stable. When ranking is hard to defend, then frequent discounts and special offers are necessary to maintain positioning in the marketplace.

Positive Contributors :

  • Provide modern luxury design that with potential user fit.
  • High entry barriers.

Negative Contributors :

  • Not a walking distance to the beach and provide no views as an adding point to sell higher.

Analysis Method :  Proprietary Method to Bukit Vista

Data Sources : Data Vista - Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse - 1st party data

The Bukit Vista Projection Method

We use least, average and reliability to report our forecast and estimation of the revenue potential of a property. We believe this method is elegant and represents the most honest way to set expectations for an owner.

For example, a property with $3,000 USD least & $4,500 USD average, with a 75% reliability means : 

  • 9 months of the year at an average of $4,500 USD / month
  • 9 months of the year earning at least $3,000 USD / month
Bukit Vista team doing revenue projection for managed properties

Quantitative Analysis Projection

Least monthly income : 24,500,000 IDR

Least represents the lowest monthly revenue your property is likely to earn in the next 12 months.

Positive Contributors :

  • Property can tap into low-season travel by being relevant to smaller group trips

Negative Contributors :

  • Owner is inflexible about pricing to target low-season travelers.

Analysis Method : 

Calendar multi-block partition method with probabilistic analysis of fitted user segment 

Data Sources : 

  • Data Vista - Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse - 1st party data
  • Airbnb - 2nd party data

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Average monthly income : 32,400,000 IDR

Average is the average monthly revenue your property is likely to earn in the next 12 months.

Positive Contributors :

  • Property appeals to the highest number of high-paying user segments across all dates of the year.

Negative Contributors :

  • Property is relevant to a narrow range of users traveling on a narrow range of dates. Can be due to size, location and design.

Analysis Method : 

Calendar multi-block partition method with probabilistic analysis of fitted user segment  

Data Sources : 

  • Data Vista - Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse - 1st party data
  • Airbnb - 2nd party data

Reliabilty : 60%

Reliability is our confidence level to deliver within those two boundaries in the next 12 months. Ranges from 0 to 1.
  • “0” impossible to predict the revenue performance even for a single month
  • “1” completely predictable revenue performance for every month of the year

Positive Contributors :

  • Property out competes alternatives by higher ranking.

Negative Contributors :

  • Property loses ranking by infrequent bookings and loses positioning in marketplace.

Analysis Method : 

Calendar multi-block partition method with probabilistic analysis of fitted user segment  

Data Sources : 

  • Data Vista - Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse - 1st party data
  • Airbnb - 2nd party data

Estimated Monthly Fixed Expenses: 3,300,000 IDR

Expenses that remain constant no matter what the occupancy. These include
  • Salaries, insurance, staff benefits
  • Base utilities: internet, trash collection
  • Baseline electricity & water: garden, pool pumps, fridges

Positive Contributors :

  • App & Automation allow staff to be shared across properties.
  • Smaller areas mean smaller costs.

Negative Contributors :

  • Manual labor management
  • Large areas to clean, large pools to circulate, large number of AC units.

Analysis Method : N/A

Data Sources : 

  • Data Vista - Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse - 1st party data

Estimated Monthly Variable Expenses - Least : 6,300,000 IDR

Expenses that rise/fall due to more guests or greater occupancy
  • Marketing & Management fees (BV)
  • Taxes
  • Guest consumption: water, electricity, laundry

Positive Contributors :

  • Costs are structured as a result of revenue, not before revenue.

Negative Contributors :

  • These are going to be the largest ‘costs’ in the operation.

Analysis Method : N/A

Data Sources : 

  • Data Vista - Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse - 1st party data

Estimated Monthly Variable Expenses - Average : 10,180,000 IDR

Expenses that rise/fall due to more guests or greater occupancy
  • Marketing & Management fees (BV)
  • Taxes
  • Guest consumption: water, electricity, laundry

Positive Contributors :

  • Costs are structured as a result of revenue, not before revenue.

Negative Contributors :

  • These are going to be the largest ‘costs’ in the operation.

Analysis Method : N/A

Data Sources : 

  • Data Vista - Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse - 1st party data

The Bottom Line

petr bottom line

Expenses for Villa Management

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