Balibiza forecasting report​

Bedroom : 3
Bathroom : 3
Floor Level : 2

Land Size : 150 m²
Building Size : 147 m²
Design : Modern
Leasehold Period : 25 year(s)

Electricty power (watt) : 7.000
Air Conditioner : 3

Swimming Pool : No
Garden     : Yes
Balcony    : Yes

Qualitative Analysis Grade

Design Grade : B+

Design influences the desirability of the property and has impact on your ranking potential and ability to defend the ranking. Unique designs will create space & allow your property to create a distinct brand and signature from competitors. This factor has impact on advance bookings. More time to sell the property results in fewer last-minute discounts.

Positive Contributors : Unique, designer built property. One of a kind.

Negative Contributors : Commodity construction, tract housing.

Analysis Method : Cluster Analysis – Expert Insight

Data Sources : Airbnb – 2nd party data

Location Grade : B

The popularity of your location, relative to all other potential locations that your potential guest might consider.

Positive Contributors :

  • Highly desirable experiential location.
  • Cliffs, jungles, waterfalls, beach

Negative Contributors :

  • Common residential setting.
  • Far from desirable experiences

Analysis Method :  Heat Map Analysis

Data Sources : Airbnb – 2nd party data

Product User Fit : B+

Travelers consist of different user segments, they’ll bid at different prices for different travel dates. A property with a high product-user fit will appeal to the greatest number of unique, highest-paying traveler segments across the year. This grade has the greatest influence on your ADR (average daily rate).

Positive Contributors :

  • Accessible to many group sizes year-round particularly 2-4 pax.
  • Desirable for wide range of trip purposes.

Negative Contributors :

  • Not walking distance to the beach or any essential attractions.

Analysis Method :  Time Series – User Segmentation Analysis by Booking Behaviors

Data Sources : Data Vista – Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse – 1st party data

Ranking Potential : B

At Bukit Vista, we are experts in attaining ranking for a property across platforms. This metric is our confidence level that your property can achieve a sustainable ranking & thus sustained revenue. This metric has the most impact on your occupancy.

Positive Contributors :

  • High Product User Fit
  • High Design Grade
  • High Location Grade

Negative Contributors :

  • Low Product User Fit
  • Low Design Grade
  • Low Location Grade

Analysis Method :  Proprietary Method to Bukit Vista

Data Sources : Data Vista – Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse – 1st party data

Ranking Defensibility : B

Once ranking has been achieved, this metric considers the effort to keep the ranking & thus the revenue stable. When ranking is hard to defend, then frequent discounts and special offers are necessary to maintain positioning in the marketplace.

Positive Contributors :

  • High market entry barriers
  • Few potential competitors in location/design/amenities

Negative Contributors :

  • Low entry barriers
  • Easy for competitors to copy design, build next door, offer similar features.

Analysis Method :  Proprietary Method to Bukit Vista

Data Sources : Data Vista – Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse – 1st party data

The Bukit Vista Projection Method

We use least, average and reliability to report our forecast and estimation of the revenue potential of a property. We believe this method is elegant and represents the most honest way to set expectations for an owner.

For example, a property with $3,000 USD least & $4,500 USD average, with a 75% reliability means : 

  • 9 months of the year at an average of $4,500 USD / month
  • 9 months of the year earning at least $3,000 USD / month
Bukit Vista team doing revenue projection for managed properties

Quantitative Analysis Projection

Least monthly income : 30,000,000 IDR

Least represents the lowest monthly revenue your property is likely to earn in the next 12 months.

Positive Contributors :

  • Property can tap into low-season travel by being relevant to smaller group trips

Negative Contributors :

  • Owner is inflexible about pricing to target low-season travelers.

Analysis Method : 

Calendar multi-block partition method with probabilistic analysis of fitted user segment 

Data Sources : 

  • Data Vista – Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse – 1st party data
  • Airbnb – 2nd party data

Average monthly income : 40,000,000 IDR

Average is the average monthly revenue your property is likely to earn in the next 12 months.

Positive Contributors :

  • Property appeals to the highest number of high-paying user segments across all dates of the year.

Negative Contributors :

  • Property is relevant to a narrow range of users traveling on a narrow range of dates. Can be due to size, location and design.

Analysis Method : 

Calendar multi-block partition method with probabilistic analysis of fitted user segment  

Data Sources : 

  • Data Vista – Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse – 1st party data
  • Airbnb – 2nd party data

Reliabilty : 80%

Reliability is our confidence level to deliver within those two boundaries in the next 12 months. Ranges from 0 to 1.
  • “0” impossible to predict the revenue performance even for a single month
  • “1” completely predictable revenue performance for every month of the year

Positive Contributors :

  • Property out competes alternatives by higher ranking.

Negative Contributors :

  • Property loses ranking by infrequent bookings and loses positioning in marketplace.

Analysis Method : 

Calendar multi-block partition method with probabilistic analysis of fitted user segment  

Data Sources : 

  • Data Vista – Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse – 1st party data
  • Airbnb – 2nd party data

Estimated Monthly Fixed Expenses: 4,500,000 IDR

Expenses that remain constant no matter what the occupancy. These include
  • Salaries, insurance, staff benefits
  • Base utilities: internet, trash collection
  • Baseline electricity & water: garden, pool pumps, fridges

Positive Contributors :

  • App & Automation allow staff to be shared across properties.
  • Smaller areas mean smaller costs.

Negative Contributors :

  • Manual labor management
  • Large areas to clean, large pools to circulate, large number of AC units.

Analysis Method : N/A

Data Sources : 

  • Data Vista – Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse – 1st party data

Estimated Monthly Variable Expenses - Least : 10,600,000 IDR

Expenses that rise/fall due to more guests or greater occupancy
  • Marketing & Management fees (BV)
  • Taxes
  • Guest consumption: water, electricity, laundry

Positive Contributors :

  • Costs are structured as a result of revenue, not before revenue.

Negative Contributors :

  • These are going to be the largest ‘costs’ in the operation.

Analysis Method : N/A

Data Sources : 

  • Data Vista – Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse – 1st party data

Estimated Monthly Variable Expenses - Average : 13,200,000 IDR

Expenses that rise/fall due to more guests or greater occupancy
  • Marketing & Management fees (BV)
  • Taxes
  • Guest consumption: water, electricity, laundry

Positive Contributors :

  • Costs are structured as a result of revenue, not before revenue.

Negative Contributors :

  • These are going to be the largest ‘costs’ in the operation.

Analysis Method : N/A

Data Sources : 

  • Data Vista – Bukit Vista’s Data Warehouse – 1st party data

The Bottom Line

bottom line - balibiza

Expenses for Villa Management

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